Ed Miliband begins his period as Leader of the Opposition in an unusual position. He is the first Labour Leader in generations to begin his leadership as a blank canvas. Normally, Labour elects the front runner, and usually the long term leader in waiting. The last time Labour elected someone other than the early favourite was in 1980, and the eventual winner was the serving Deputy Leader.
Of course, the Conservatives usually elect an outsider. Pretty much every person ever elected Leader of the Conservative Party is someone who would not even have been a candidate twelve months earlier. But we are now in the era of social media, and a blank canvas is a tempting target for blogs and Twitter. It is generally acknowledged that in UK politics it is the right-wing blogosphere that has set the standard. So new leaders of the Conservative Party did not have to cope with a generally hostile blogosphere, and the last Conservative leadership election took place before days of Twitter and Facebook.
So, here we have an interesting confluence. Social media have reached a level of key influence; the right maintains (for the moment) a decisive advantage in this space; and Labour has a new leader with little or no profile. To most of the electorate he is the brother of that guy who chickened out of challenging Gordon Brown.
Paul Richards is New Labour to his core - even before there was New Labour - and is a genuine expert on public relations and political communications. (His latest book Labour's Revival is available from Biteback). He believes that social media will have only a limited role in defining to the public who Ed Miliband is. Much of their influence is still filtered through the msm. Social media can generate enthusiasm, and can shape perceptions, especially among the young, but Paul doubts that their role will be decisive.
He also doesn't believe that the tag "Red Ed" is going to stick, no matter how beloved it is of some bloggers (including the influential Guido Fawkes) and tabloid headline writers. He compares it with the failed attempt to label Tony Blair as 'Bambi', which failed because it simply wasn't true. In any case, Paul expects Labour to gain a great deal of ground in social media, now that it is in opposition.
On the last point, his view is partially endorsed by Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome. But Tim warns that it is not as simple as thinking that bloggers thrive in opposition. The right wing pre-eminence in social media has been at least partly happenstance: the simple availability of Tim, Paul Staines (Guido Fawkes) and Iain Dale.
Tim believes the 'Red Ed' tag is a limiting factor on Ed Miliband. Social media have been at the forefront of picking up on Miliband's union ties and his social awkwardness. He concedes that the tag won't stick if there is no evidence to support it, but believes that it would only take a few pieces of evidence to help define Miliband, perhaps permanently.
To make this brandjack work, the right will have to be obsessive in putting the label on Miliband, and everything he does. This consistency is required partly because of heightened speed of the news cycle. Stories don't stay at the top of pile for as long as they used to. In the days of social media, the conversation moves on.
Paul and Tim both make persuasive arguments, and only time will tell, but social media will play a key role in turning up the stories that run in the msm the following day. How the msm handle things - especially the tabloid headline writers - will also be key in defining the narrative around Ed Miliband. On a very simple level 'Red Ed' works as a tabloid headline. This columnist is not convinced that Stephen Byers was any more dishonest than most other members of Tony Blair's cabinet, but "Liar Byers" worked too, and it cost him his career. This is probably what Tim means when he says the label is limiting on Miliband. It was John Prescott who had the reputation for enjoying his foreign trips, and the public forgave him for it. If it had been David Blunkett, the 'Junkett Blunkett' headlines would have been too tempting for tabloid editors. Ed is going to have to be very careful not to do or say anything 'red'.
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